U.S. Job Growth to Slow to 3.5% Through 2035, BLS Projects

Decade-Long Job Growth Expected to Drop Sharply

The United States will add jobs at roughly one-third the pace of the previous decade, according to new projections from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment is forecast to grow just 3.5 percent between 2025 and 2035—a dramatic slowdown from the 10.9 percent expansion recorded from 2015 to 2025.

The report identifies artificial intelligence adoption and automation as central factors in the deceleration, particularly for white-collar and administrative roles that have historically absorbed large numbers of workers.

Why it matters

This projection signals a structural shift in the American labor market. Business leaders planning workforce strategies and policymakers designing education and retraining programs will need to account for slower overall hiring even as specific sectors like healthcare surge. The data also underscores the uneven impact of AI—creating productivity gains that reduce headcount needs in some industries while barely touching others.

Office and Administrative Jobs Face Steepest Decline

Office and administrative support occupations will bear the brunt of automation-driven job losses. The BLS projects this category will shrink by 4.0 percent over the decade, shedding 752,100 positions—the largest decline of any major occupational group.

Generative AI tools capable of automating repetitive tasks and accelerating workflows are expected to limit demand across multiple sectors. The report specifically flags arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations as vulnerable to AI-driven productivity improvements that reduce hiring needs.

Sales-related roles are projected to contract by 1.4 percent, while manufacturing operations face a 0.4 percent decline as automation technologies continue to displace human workers in production environments.

Healthcare to Dominate New Job Creation

More than one-third of all new jobs created through 2035 will concentrate in healthcare. The private healthcare and social assistance sector is expected to expand employment by 9.5 percent, adding approximately 2.2 million positions—accounting for 37 percent of total job growth nationwide.

This surge stems from demographic forces: an aging population and rising rates of chronic conditions including heart disease, cancer, and diabetes will drive sustained demand for medical services and caregiving.

Energy Sector Shows Rapid Growth from Small Base

Surging electricity demand—driven by AI data centers, electric vehicles, and other power-intensive technologies—will fuel job growth in renewable energy installation and maintenance. Solar photovoltaic installers and wind turbine service technicians rank among the five fastest-growing occupations, with projected growth rates of 36.5 percent and 29.5 percent respectively.

However, these roles represent a small slice of the overall labor market. Combined, they are expected to add fewer than 15,000 jobs by 2035. The broader utilities sector will grow 9.8 percent but contribute only 58,000 new positions given its limited size.

Overall U.S. employment is projected to rise from 170.3 million to 176.2 million workers by 2035.

These projections were first reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and detailed by International Business Times.