CoreWeave's AI Contract Backlog Could Hit $131 Billion by Q2

CoreWeave accelerates AI infrastructure deals

CoreWeave, the AI cloud infrastructure provider that ranked No. 45 on the 2025 Inc. 5000, could close the second quarter with a revenue backlog approaching $131 billion, according to a new analysis from Cantor Fitzgerald.

Analyst Brett Knoblauch estimates the company's backlog had already reached approximately $125 billion by early June, as reported by Barron's. If CoreWeave maintains its current contract-signing velocity through month-end, the figure could climb to $131 billion—roughly $32 billion above the $99.4 billion backlog the company reported as of March 31 and well ahead of Wall Street's consensus estimate of $104.4 billion.

How the estimate was calculated

Knoblauch derived his projection from bond-offering materials that showed CoreWeave's run-rate adjusted EBITDA rising from $16.1 billion in April to $18.76 billion. He converted the EBITDA figure into implied revenue using an 80 percent margin assumption, then applied an average contract duration of 4.67 years. Because the bond memorandum covered roughly 80 percent of the quarter, he extrapolated the same pace of additions through the remainder of Q2.

The analyst rates CoreWeave shares Overweight with a $167 price target, arguing that investors are "woefully undervaluing" the company.

Why it matters

CoreWeave's ability to sign contracts at this pace underscores surging enterprise demand for AI computing infrastructure. But the company's own disclosures highlight a critical constraint: its projections depend entirely on deploying the physical capacity to service those contracts. The run-rate measure includes approximately $15.1 billion in projected adjusted EBITDA from newly signed deals that CoreWeave expects to begin servicing within 24 months, on top of $3.64 billion generated during the previous 12 months. Financing and building that infrastructure at scale will determine whether the backlog translates into actual revenue.

From crypto mining to AI infrastructure

Co-founders Michael Intrator, Brian Venturo, and Brannin McBee originally launched CoreWeave as a cryptocurrency mining operation before pivoting to rent access to Nvidia chips and other AI infrastructure. The company posted 5,896 percent revenue growth over a three-year period ending in 2024.

CoreWeave has cautioned that its run-rate projections are illustrative, unaudited, and contingent on its ability to deploy the required computing capacity. The backlog estimate represents an analyst calculation rather than official company guidance.

These details were first reported by Georgia Fearn at Inc.