U.S. tells allies to pick a side in AI race with China

The United States is preparing to deliver an ultimatum to dozens of countries: choose between American and Chinese leadership in artificial intelligence, but you cannot have both.

According to a draft State Department letter reviewed by Reuters, Washington plans to warn the 35 signatories of its AI Opportunity Statement that joining China's competing AI framework could exclude them from the U.S.-led Pax Silica coalition. The message marks an escalation in the technology rivalry between the two superpowers, moving from implicit competition to explicit demands for exclusive alignment.

The Pax Silica framework

The U.S. launched Pax Silica in 2024 to strengthen supply chains for AI models, semiconductors, and critical minerals. About two dozen countries have joined, including Israel, Japan, Australia, and South Korea. The initiative offers members access to joint investment opportunities in AI-related projects and coordinated export controls while reducing dependence on adversaries for essential technology components.

The draft letter, which is undated and could be revised before delivery, states that joining Pax Silica represents "not merely a membership subscription, but a commitment." It urges countries to "choose deliberately" and warns that membership "cannot be held alongside membership in duplicative initiatives whose expectations conflict with our own," though it stops short of explicitly naming China.

Kazakhstan caught in the middle

Kazakhstan has emerged as the first test case for Washington's new stance. The Central Asian nation is currently the only country known to have joined both the U.S. Pax Silica framework and China's rival World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, which Chinese President Xi Jinping launched in July 2024.

Kazakhstan holds particular strategic importance because of its reserves of critical minerals used in advanced technologies. The United States highlighted Kazakhstan's accession to Pax Silica in June as a significant win, describing it as the first Central Asian country to join the framework. The Kazakh embassy in Washington did not respond to requests for comment on the draft letter.

China's competing vision

China's World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization promotes Beijing's open-weight AI technology as an alternative to U.S. influence in the sector. Chinese open-weight AI models have made rapid gains against proprietary systems developed by American companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic, narrowing what was once considered a substantial technological gap.

A Chinese embassy spokesperson in Washington said Beijing opposes "the politicization of trade and technology issues," adding that "such actions will only stifle global AI advances and serve no one's interests."

Why it matters

The ultimatum reflects growing concern in Washington that dual participation allows countries to benefit from American technology cooperation while simultaneously providing China access to critical resources and legitimacy. As AI capabilities expand to include systems capable of autonomously hacking computer networks, the stakes for national security and global power balance have intensified. Critical minerals have become leverage in the broader trade confrontation, with China holding near-monopoly positions over some materials while the United States accelerates efforts to secure alternative supplies from allied nations.

A U.S. official told Reuters that countries "can't have it both ways," speaking on condition of anonymity because the matter remains under internal discussion. The State Department declined to comment on what it described as "purportedly leaked internal documents."

The details were first reported by Reuters and CTech.