U.S. Demands Allies Choose Between American or Chinese AI Coalitions

The United States is preparing to issue an ultimatum to dozens of countries: choose alignment with Washington or Beijing in the global artificial intelligence competition, but not both.

According to a draft State Department letter reviewed by Reuters, the U.S. will tell nations they cannot simultaneously participate in its Pax Silica initiative and China's rival World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization. The message targets 35 signatories of a U.S. "AI Opportunity Statement" signed in June, which includes current Pax Silica members and other countries that have expressed interest in cooperating with Washington on AI.

The strategic standoff

Washington launched Pax Silica last year to secure supply chains for AI models, semiconductors, and critical minerals amid intensifying technology competition with Beijing. Approximately two dozen countries have joined, including Japan, Australia, and South Korea.

The initiative took on new urgency after Chinese President Xi Jinping launched a competing framework in July, promoting China's open-weight AI technology as an alternative to U.S. influence in the sector.

Kazakhstan has emerged as the flashpoint in this competition. The Central Asian nation joined Pax Silica in June, becoming the first country in its region to do so and bringing significant reserves of critical minerals. However, Kazakhstan is also the only country known to have joined China's coalition, triggering alarm in Washington.

"To be part of everything is to be part of nothing," the draft letter states, emphasizing that Pax Silica membership "cannot be held alongside membership in duplicative initiatives whose expectations conflict with our own."

Why it matters

This forced-choice strategy represents a significant escalation in the U.S.-China technology rivalry, moving beyond export controls and tariffs to demand explicit alignment from partner nations. Countries with strategic resources or geographic importance now face pressure to make binding commitments that could shape their economic and security relationships for years. The approach mirrors Cold War-era alliance structures but applies them to the AI era, where access to computing power, advanced chips, and rare earth minerals determines technological leadership.

The stakes for partners

Pax Silica members gain access to shared investment opportunities in AI-related projects and benefit from coordinated approaches to export controls. The framework aims to reduce reliance on adversaries for critical minerals, AI models, and semiconductor chips.

A U.S. official told Reuters that the letter makes clear "you can't have it both ways," adding that it's difficult to see how a country can position itself as a trusted partner in one technology ecosystem while simultaneously joining an initiative designed to advance a competing vision.

China's embassy in Washington pushed back against the approach, stating that the country opposes politicizing trade and technology issues. "Such actions will only stifle global AI advances and serve no one's interests," an embassy spokesperson said.

The State Department declined to comment on what it called "purportedly leaked internal documents." Reuters could not determine when the U.S. intends to send the letter or whether it might be revised.

The competition has intensified as Chinese open-weight AI models have made rapid gains against proprietary systems from U.S. companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic. Beijing is now weighing restrictions on overseas access to some of its leading AI models, reflecting growing tension with its national security priorities.

These details were first reported by Reuters.