Mexico Excluded From U.S. AI Chip Access List as Trade Review Looms

The U.S. Commerce Department has granted 18 countries preferential access to advanced AI chips and export licenses. Canada is on that list. Mexico is not.

No official explanation has been published, but trade analysts point to a single factor: Mexico has not built the technology regulatory framework Washington now requires before extending that level of trust. The omission arrives at a critical juncture—just as the three USMCA partners enter mandatory trade agreement reviews that will determine the pact's future.

Why it matters

Mexico's AI governance vacuum is no longer a domestic policy issue—it has become a trade liability. As the U.S. and Mexico conduct bilateral negotiations on economic security and supply chain integrity, Mexico lacks the regulatory foundation to credibly negotiate AI provisions or secure access to the advanced hardware its manufacturers increasingly need. With nearshoring momentum at stake and annual USMCA reviews now the norm, the window to build that framework is measured in weeks, not years.

USMCA enters uncertain territory

On July 1, the three USMCA members convened their first mandatory six-year review. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer informed counterparts that Washington would not renew the agreement in its current form. Mexico and Canada both requested a full 16-year extension. No consensus emerged, and the pact now shifts to annual reviews through 2036, according to reporting first published by Mexico Business.

The agreement remains fully operational during negotiations, but the shift introduces persistent uncertainty. The U.S. and Mexico have already completed three bilateral negotiation rounds this year—in May, June, and July—covering automotive rules of origin, steel and aluminum, and what officials term "economic security," which in practice means limiting Chinese capital and technology in North American supply chains. A fourth round is scheduled for Washington in September.

The digital trade chapter wasn't built for AI

Chapter 19 of USMCA governs digital trade, establishing rules for cross-border data flows, source code protection, and software movement. When negotiated in 2018, it represented the most advanced digital trade framework in any trade agreement. But it predates the current AI era, and all three governments recognize the gap.

Researchers at the Center for Strategic and International Studies recommend preserving Chapter 19's core provisions while adding a separate AI protocol—a side agreement establishing shared risk definitions, mutual recognition of safety standards, and a standing working group. The Inter-American Dialogue task force reached similar conclusions. ITIF has proposed renaming Chapter 19 entirely to explicitly cover AI and align export controls.

Mexico's competitiveness think tank IMCO argues the country should pursue a regional economic security agenda linking technology cooperation, border infrastructure, and supply chain resilience. The challenge: making that pitch credibly without domestic AI legislation in place.

Mexico's stalled legislative efforts

Mexico has no general AI law. A Senate commission worked through spring on a comprehensive framework, and in April a bill reached the Chamber of Deputies proposing a constitutional amendment to grant Congress authority to pass national AI legislation. Neither reached a floor vote before the session closed.

Senator Karina Ruiz introduced legislation in February that would create a national AI agency with enforcement powers, including fines tied to harm caused and benefits gained from violations. That bill remains in committee.

What exists instead are piecemeal reforms. Federal labor and copyright law amendments addressing AI took effect in May. Data protection rules now require disclosure of automated decision systems and provide rights to human review. But these scattered provisions do not constitute the governance framework needed for credible trade negotiations.

The adoption gap

Data from INEGI's 2024 economic census shows only 4.8% of Mexican manufacturing companies with more than 10 employees use AI. Across all sectors, the average reaches 8%—less than half the OECD average of 19.1%. A separate AWS-commissioned study found 48% of Mexican companies now use AI, up from 38% the previous year, but nearly two-thirds remain limited to chatbots and basic document automation.

Mexico's foreign direct investment confidence ranking climbed six positions this year to 19th globally, driven largely by nearshoring. But both Kearney and Morgan Stanley attached the same caveat: the ranking assumes the USMCA review produces clarity rather than prolonged uncertainty.

The fourth negotiation round begins in September. Canada's AI transparency consultation closes that same month. Every week without a functioning AI framework is a week other governments write rules Mexico will have to accept rather than help shape.

These details were first reported by Mexico Business, with analysis by Bernhard Wurzinger of Spenza.