U.S. gas plant forecast nearly triples to 66 GW by 2030

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has dramatically increased its projection for new natural gas power plant construction, signaling a major shift in America's electricity generation landscape.

The federal agency now forecasts 66 gigawatts of new gas-fired capacity will come online between 2026 and 2030—nearly triple its prediction of 23 GW made at the start of 2025, according to reporting by E&E News.

Two forces driving the gas surge

The revised forecast reflects the convergence of two powerful trends reshaping the energy sector: aggressive policy changes under the Trump administration and the explosive growth of artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Since taking office, President Trump has systematically dismantled support for renewable energy while removing regulatory barriers to fossil fuel development. His administration has proposed eliminating carbon dioxide regulations on new gas-fired power plants—a move that would make it significantly easier and cheaper to build natural gas generation facilities.

Simultaneously, the AI boom has created unprecedented electricity demand. Data centers powering machine learning systems require massive amounts of reliable power, and utilities are increasingly turning to natural gas to meet this load growth quickly.

A transformed energy outlook

The scale of the revision underscores how rapidly market conditions and policy frameworks can alter infrastructure planning. In just 18 months, the expected buildout of gas capacity has increased by 43 GW—enough to power roughly 30 million homes.

This shift represents a significant departure from the trajectory many analysts expected at the beginning of 2025, when renewable energy subsidies remained in place and climate regulations appeared likely to constrain fossil fuel expansion.

Why it matters

This forecast revision has major implications for energy markets, climate policy, and infrastructure investment. The accelerated gas buildout will lock in decades of fossil fuel generation, making it harder to achieve emissions reduction targets. For utilities and power developers, it signals a more favorable regulatory environment for natural gas projects. And for AI companies planning data center expansion, it suggests the grid will have more capacity to support their growth—though at the cost of increased carbon emissions.

These details were first reported by Benjamin Storrow for E&E News.