Tech critic warns OpenAI collapse could trigger AI bubble crash

Technology critic Ed Zitron has issued a stark warning that OpenAI's potential collapse could trigger a market event comparable to the 2008 Lehman Brothers failure, arguing the company has become a systemic risk to the entire artificial intelligence sector.

In a newsletter published Tuesday, Zitron described OpenAI as "one of the largest liabilities in recent economic history," contending that the company's survival underpins trillions of dollars in technology infrastructure spending across the industry. Without OpenAI, he argues, the financial justification for this massive capital expenditure evaporates.

The financial exposure

The scale of OpenAI's financial commitments is substantial. According to Zitron's analysis, the company plans to spend over $50 billion on compute resources this year alone. More significantly, OpenAI has accumulated approximately $748 billion in performance obligations to major technology partners including Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle.

The company posted a net loss of $38.5 billion in 2025 on $13.07 billion in revenue. It is also carrying the weight of a $122 billion funding round that has not fully closed, with SoftBank Group contributing $30 billion in installments — the third tranche due October 1, 2026.

OpenAI filed confidentially for an IPO last month at an $852 billion valuation, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading the process. However, the company is leaning toward delaying the public offering until 2027 after advisers warned that CEO Sam Altman's minimum target of a $1 trillion valuation may not be achievable under current market conditions.

Ripple effects across infrastructure partners

Zitron argues that OpenAI's financial stress extends beyond the company itself. Oracle has committed more than $340 billion to build data center capacity for OpenAI as part of a $300 billion compute contract. S&P Global has cut Oracle's credit rating to the lowest investment-grade level, explicitly naming OpenAI as a key credit risk.

If OpenAI were to stop payments to infrastructure partners such as Oracle and CoreWeave, Zitron contends those companies would lack the cash flow needed to meet their own debt obligations, creating a cascade effect through the technology sector.

Why it matters

OpenAI's financial structure represents a concentration of risk that extends far beyond a single company. The AI infrastructure buildout — from data centers to chip manufacturing — has been predicated on sustained demand from companies like OpenAI. If that demand evaporates or payment obligations go unmet, the resulting credit stress could spread rapidly through interconnected technology suppliers and cloud infrastructure providers. For business leaders evaluating AI investments, understanding this systemic risk is critical to assessing the stability of the current market environment.

Zitron traces the current AI spending cycle to ChatGPT's November 2022 launch, which he says provided a struggling technology industry with a narrative to justify massive infrastructure investments. He characterizes the AI bubble as driven not by measurable returns but by what he calls "cult-like psychosis" among wealthy investors and institutions.

The newsletter closes with a prediction: "I believe that once OpenAI collapses it'll have a violent, punishing effect on the entire stock market, a precursor to a much greater drawdown as everybody accepts that the AI bubble has burst."

These details were first reported by Quartz, based on Zitron's newsletter Where's Your Ed At.