Credit agencies model recession risk from AI stock crash

Major financial institutions are stress-testing scenarios in which artificial intelligence stocks experience a sharp correction, with credit rating agency Fitch projecting that a 35% decline over six months could push the United States into recession in 2027.

The modeling comes as AI companies face a new source of uncertainty. According to reporting by El País, Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX and Microsoft have requested slower development of cutting-edge AI models, introducing concerns that these firms might reduce capital spending—currently a primary driver of economic growth.

The contagion scenario

Fitch's analysis, released in early September, outlines how an AI stock crash would ripple through the global economy along two channels. First, household wealth destruction would hit investors worldwide. The European Central Bank estimates eurozone households alone hold €444 billion in U.S. technology stocks.

Second, tighter financial conditions would slash private capital spending on tech infrastructure by up to 6%, according to Fitch analysts. The resulting demand collapse would suppress prices across economies, prompting central banks to cut interest rates in response. Under this scenario, global GDP growth would fall below 1% in 2027.

The Bank for International Settlements, based in Basel, Switzerland, has outlined even more severe possibilities. A study from early 2026 suggests an AI correction could exceed the dotcom crash of the early 2000s, which drove the S&P 500 down 50% over two years.

The profitability question

Both institutions anchor their concerns in doubts about the sector's ability to generate returns matching its valuations. At a Goldman Sachs event last week featuring representatives from Google, OpenAI and SpaceX, the investment bank noted that companies are increasingly demanding measurable results from AI investments.

McKinsey reported that only 37% of companies deploying AI systems have observed positive impacts on gross benefits. Yet investment continues to accelerate. ING estimates AI-related spending now accounts for one-third of U.S. economic growth this year. The five largest AI companies are projected to invest nearly one trillion euros in capital between 2025 and 2026—more than half of Spain's annual GDP, according to BIS data.

Why it matters

The financial sector's scenario planning reveals how concentrated the current economic expansion has become around a single technology category. If confidence in AI profitability erodes, the wealth effects and capital spending pullback could transmit quickly across borders, particularly affecting economies with significant exposure to U.S. tech equities. The modeling also highlights a tension between calls for responsible AI development and market expectations for aggressive deployment and returns.

Despite the analytical warnings, markets showed resilience on Monday following the development slowdown news. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index experienced minimal movement, and major indices remain near record highs.

These details were first reported by El País, with analysis by Carlos Méndez in Madrid.