Anthropic IPO Hype Builds on Leaked Projections, Unnamed Sources

Unverified Revenue Claims Surface Ahead of Anthropic IPO

Anthropic, the AI safety-focused company behind the Claude language model, has entered an SEC-monitored quiet period ahead of its expected fall IPO. While the company itself remains largely silent, a wave of bullish financial projections from unnamed sources and industry commentators has begun shaping public perception of its prospects.

A Reuters report last Friday cited two unnamed sources claiming Anthropic is projecting 2028 revenue between $190 billion and $200 billion. The report provided no details on the underlying assumptions or methodology behind these figures. Separately, leaked documents obtained by Bloomberg News highlighted strong second-quarter performance, though specific metrics were not disclosed in the available reporting.

The Hype Ecosystem

Beyond traditional media leaks, podcast hosts and investors have amplified optimistic narratives. Gavin Baker stated on the All-In podcast that Anthropic is profitable on a per-token basis. Podcaster Dwarkesh Patel initially projected the company would reach $100-150 billion in revenue by year-end before partially retracting the claim.

These projections stand in stark contrast to typical early-stage AI company financials. The $190-200 billion figure for 2028 would place Anthropic's revenue in the range of today's largest technology companies, despite the AI sector's ongoing questions about path to profitability and sustainable business models.

Why It Matters

The pattern emerging around Anthropic's IPO preparation illustrates how AI company valuations are being driven by projections rather than demonstrated financial performance. For investors and business leaders evaluating the AI sector, the reliance on unnamed sources and undisclosed methodologies makes it difficult to assess actual business fundamentals versus speculative enthusiasm.

The quiet period exists precisely to prevent companies from selectively promoting their prospects during the IPO process. Yet the current information environment—with leaks, third-party commentary, and social media discussion—creates a narrative that may or may not reflect audited financial reality. This dynamic has implications for how the broader AI investment landscape is being priced and understood.

CEO Dario Amodei has made rare public appearances during this period, including discussing governance matters on X, suggesting the company is navigating the constraints of the quiet period while maintaining some public presence on non-financial topics.

These details were first reported by Gary Marcus on AI Watch, who noted the contrast between Anthropic's official silence and the active promotion by "leakers and generative AI bulls."