AI Won't Wipe Out White-Collar Jobs, Vanguard Economist Says

AI anxiety meets historical perspective

As anxiety mounts over artificial intelligence displacing office workers, a senior economist at Vanguard is pushing back against predictions of mass white-collar unemployment. Adam Schickling argues that historical precedent suggests AI will transform rather than eliminate professional jobs.

The debate has intensified following warnings from leaders at Anthropic and DeepMind, prompting some young professionals to question whether traditional career paths remain viable. Schickling's analysis, however, draws on decades of technological disruption to make the case for cautious optimism.

The ATM precedent

Schickling points to automated teller machines as a revealing case study. When ATMs arrived in the 1980s, many predicted widespread job losses for bank tellers. While some routine tasks were indeed automated, the overall impact on banking employment defied expectations.

By reducing operational costs, banks opened more branches. This expansion created demand for loan officers, credit analysts, personal bankers, and fraud specialists. The work performed inside branches shifted up the skill-value chain rather than disappearing entirely.

"Just as we expect artificial intelligence to transform the labor market, the expansion of retail banking created demand for a wider range of occupations," Schickling wrote.

Mobile banking's lessons

A more recent example reinforces this pattern. Mobile banking disrupted traditional roles in the 2000s but simultaneously generated new positions in cybersecurity and payment-platform engineering. The technology didn't eliminate banking jobs—it redistributed them.

Schickling notes that isolated task automation rarely produces large-scale job losses except in occupations built around very narrow activities. Meaningful disruption typically occurs when technologies combine with new workflows and business models that fundamentally reorganize work.

Why it matters

This analysis offers a counterweight to growing pessimism about AI's labor market impact at a moment when career decisions are being shaped by worst-case scenarios. If AI follows the pattern of previous general-purpose technologies like electricity and personal computers, it will enable products, services, and industries not yet conceived—along with the jobs to support them. Understanding this historical context helps organizations and workers prepare for transformation rather than elimination.

Broader economic thinking

Schickling isn't alone in this assessment. Torsten Sløk of Apollo Global Management has invoked Jevons paradox, an economic principle suggesting that efficiency gains from new technologies ultimately expand rather than contract employment opportunities.

The Vanguard economist concludes that fears of widespread job loss are likely overblown, though he acknowledges AI will automate some routine administrative tasks just as ATMs handled basic transactions.

These details were first reported by Business Insider.