AI Ad Spending to Hit $32B in 2026, Most via Search Listings

US advertising spending on AI platforms will reach $32.03 billion in 2026—nearly triple the 2025 total—and climb past $68 billion by 2030, according to eMarketer's May forecast. But the money is not going where many marketers expected.

More than 80% of that spending in 2026 will run through traditional paid search listings that appear alongside AI-generated results like Google's AI Overviews, rather than ads embedded directly in chatbot conversations. Even by 2030, eMarketer projects search-adjacent formats will still capture 58.6% of all US AI advertising dollars.

The finding carries immediate implications for marketing organizations: the teams currently managing paid search are already operating the infrastructure that will handle the majority of AI ad exposure. Existing keyword strategies, bidding systems, and copy testing frameworks transfer directly to this environment.

Why it matters

CMOs weighing whether to build separate AI advertising functions may find the capability already exists in-house. Rather than representing a platform shift requiring new expertise, AI advertising is emerging as an extension of paid search—a channel most brands have managed for two decades. The forecast suggests investment should focus on adapting current teams rather than building parallel structures.

AI platforms expand search occasions

The spending growth reflects measurable shifts in user behavior. The number of US AI users will nearly double between 2023 and 2026, per eMarketer, while total US online discovery time has grown 12% over the past 18 months based on the firm's analysis of Comscore data.

Crucially, AI platforms appear to be expanding the total number of search occasions rather than cannibalizing existing ones. Principal analyst Nate Elliott, speaking at eMarketer's Ad Buyer Strategies Summit, described AI as competing for attention alongside retail, social, and search rather than replacing them. The forecast assumes a growing surface area of purchase intent, not a zero-sum battle for fixed attention.

Chatbot ads evolve rapidly but remain immature

The newest segment—ads inside chatbot conversations—is developing quickly but from a small base. OpenAI launched its advertising trial in January 2026 and crossed $100 million in annualized revenue within six weeks, according to CNBC. The company has since lowered minimum spend from $200,000 to $50,000, launched an ads manager, added click-based pricing, and expanded internationally.

Early performance data shows the format still maturing. Advertisers have reported clickthrough rates as low as 0.91%, per AdWeek, well below the 6.4% benchmark for Google search. OpenAI has said fewer than 20% of eligible users see ads daily.

Google initially stated it had no plans to bring ads to Gemini but signaled a potential shift following strong Q1 2026 earnings. The company has committed up to $185 billion in capital expenditures this year, creating pressure for Gemini to contribute more directly to revenue. As of May, more than 60% of US commercial Google queries led to an AI Overview, and Google reported last summer that AI Overviews had surpassed 2 billion global users.

Amazon captures incremental search dollars

AI advertising is growing inside a fragmenting search market. Amazon will account for 43.4% of all new US search ad spending between 2026 and 2028—more incremental dollars than Google will add over the same period, per eMarketer's June 2026 forecast. For brands building AI optimization strategies focused solely on Google and chatbots, the data points to a significant gap in Amazon's discovery surfaces.

Four priorities for marketing leaders

The research suggests four near-term actions. First, treat paid search as the direct entry point into AI advertising, since existing infrastructure applies immediately. Second, invest in organic AI visibility through third-party signals like creator partnerships and review programs, which function as the mechanism by which large language models associate brands with queries. Third, fund chatbot ads as test-and-learn budgets with calibrated expectations given early performance data. Fourth, unify measurement across the discovery stack to enable faster budget reallocation as the market evolves.

These findings were first reported by Gabriel Alin Zainescu in Forbes, based on eMarketer's May and June 2026 forecasts and data presented at the firm's Ad Buyer Strategies Summit.