90% of Execs Say AI Had No Impact on Productivity or Jobs

The productivity promise remains unfulfilled

A new survey from the National Bureau of Economic Research has delivered sobering findings about artificial intelligence's impact on business performance. More than 90 percent of executives who responded reported that AI had no measurable effect on employment levels at their companies over the past three years. Perhaps more striking, 89 percent said they saw no impact on labor productivity whatsoever.

The findings, first reported by Futurism, underscore a growing disconnect between the massive capital investments flowing into AI adoption and the tangible returns companies are seeing. Despite marketing claims that position AI as a productivity multiplier, the technology has yet to deliver on those promises at scale.

Why it matters

Companies are making trillion-dollar bets on AI while simultaneously conducting layoffs justified by supposed efficiency gains from the same technology. This research suggests those layoffs may be premature and counterproductive, potentially damaging the very conditions needed for AI tools to succeed. The gap between executive expectations and measurable outcomes raises fundamental questions about current AI deployment strategies.

Layoffs continue despite lack of evidence

The disconnect becomes more troubling when examined alongside ongoing workforce reductions. Companies continue to cut staff while citing AI-driven efficiency gains, even though their own executives acknowledge seeing no productivity improvements.

University of Pittsburgh business professor Mark Ma, writing in The Conversation, points out that this approach may be self-defeating. His research indicates that AI-driven layoffs actively undermine the conditions necessary for AI to enhance worker efficiency. Employee sentiment toward AI emerges as one of the strongest predictors of productivity gains when companies deploy these tools.

Market reaction offers no validation

Investors appear unconvinced by the AI-layoff strategy as well. Ma's examination of stock market reactions to layoff announcements found average returns close to zero, suggesting that financial markets see little value creation in these moves.

Meta serves as a cautionary example. The company has struggled to maintain employee morale following sweeping layoffs, demonstrating how workforce reductions can damage organizational culture even at technology leaders.

Employee sentiment drives AI success

Ma's analysis of Glassdoor reviews revealed a strong correlation between employee sentiment toward AI and actual firm productivity based on financial data. The research suggests that negative worker attitudes toward AI can lower productivity enough to offset any potential efficiency gains the technology might provide.

The implication is clear: employee buy-in matters more than managerial optimism when it comes to realizing AI benefits. Companies that use AI to justify layoffs may be engaging in what Ma calls a "strategic miscalculation that cuts against the benefits of AI."

Industry begins reckoning with reality

Broader signs suggest the AI industry is starting to confront the gap between promises and performance. Even OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recently acknowledged that the technology has not yet delivered a transformative "iPhone moment" that fundamentally changes how people interact with technology.

The research findings were first detailed by Futurism, drawing on work from the National Bureau of Economic Research and analysis by Mark Ma published in The Conversation.